Lansing – Michigan Congressman Mike Rogers (R-Howell) is the leading Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Carl Levin according to a poll of potential GOP voters. The Marketing Resource Group (MRG) Michigan Poll shows Rogers with at least a nine-percentage point lead over four other potential Republican candidates.

Among GOP primary voters, Rogers received 24 percent of the vote, followed by Congressman Justin Amash (R-Grand Rapids) with 15 percent, former Secretary of State Terri Land at 14 percent, and State Senator Roger Kahn (R-Saginaw) and former GOP party chair Saul Anuzis with 1 percent each.

“Congressman Rogers has a strong base of support in his home area among mid-Michigan and Oakland County voters,” said Tom Shields, President of MRG. “Our poll shows Amash and Land splitting up the west Michigan vote. If only one of them runs, the primary would probably be a dead heat.”

  • Rogers receives 61 percent of the vote in mid-Michigan and 43 percent of the vote in Oakland County
  • Amash receives 35 percent of the vote in West Michigan
  • Land receives 24 percent of the vote in West Michigan
  • Rogers leads among conservatives (Rogers 24 percent, Land 17 percent, Amash 16 percent)
  • Rogers leads among strong pro-life voters (Rogers 25 percent, Land 19 percent, Amash 15 percent)

The actual wording and results of the questions are below.

If the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator were being held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE: Justin Amash, Saul Anuzis, Roger Kahn, Terry Lynn Land and Mike Rogers) for whom would you vote? (IF REF/DK, ASK: Which way do you lean as of today, toward (ROTATE: Amash, Anuzis, Kahn, Land or Rogers)?

ALL GOP
POSSIBLE VOTERS
VOTERS ONLY
Vote Amash: 13%
Lean Amash: 2%
Vote Anuzis: 1%
Lean Anuzis: 0%
Vote Kahn: 1%
Lean Kahn: *
Vote Land: 10%
Lean Land: 4%
Vote Rogers: 21%
Lean Rogers: 3%
Don’t know: 44%
Refused: 0%

TOTAL AMASH: 15%
TOTAL ANUZIS: 1%
TOTAL KAHN: 1%
TOTAL LAND: 14%
TOTAL ROGERS:  24%

Marketing Resource Group’s Spring 2013 MRG Michigan Poll was conducted March 17 through March 23. The poll was conducted live by professionally trained telephone interviewers. Within the random sample of 600 likely voters, 209 voters indicated that they typically vote in Republican Primary elections, while 220 said they typically vote in Democratic Primary elections. Given those sub-sample sizes, the Republican Primary sample has a margin of error of ± 6.8 percentage points or less, and the Democratic Primary sample has a margin of error of ± 6.6 percentage points or less, within a 95 percent degree of confidence.

The cluster sample was drawn from a list of voters likely to vote in the November general elections, which is determined by their participation in previous statewide general elections. The individuals included in that list and their voting histories are updated monthly. The poll sample is stratified by statewide voter turnout and is geographically representative of general election voter turnout in Michigan. 20 percent of the respondents are likely voters who live in cell phone-only households. Those respondents were manually dialed, contacted and interviewed on their cell-phones and they indicated that they do not have a land line telephone in their homes.

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