Favorable rating drops, unfavorable soars, lead disappears
LANSING, Mich. – Hillary Clinton’s growing unfavorable perception among Michigan voters is costing her the early lead she had on potential Republican opponents in next year’s Presidential election.
Since March of 2015, Clinton’s favorable rating in Michigan has dropped by 15 points and her unfavorable rating has jumped 15 points according to a survey of 600 likely general election voters conducted by Marketing Resource Group (MRG). In April of 2015, 45 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Clinton and 44 percent viewed her unfavorably. In September her favorable rating went down to 30 percent and her unfavorable rating climbed to 59 percent.
With this change in her perception, Clinton now trails both Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina 39 percent to 40 percent. Clinton leads Donald Trump 43 percent to 40 percent despite Trump’s abysmal favorable rating of only 28 percent and unfavorable of 56 percent.
“In April, Hillary was beating Jeb Bush 47 percent to 38 percent in Michigan. Since announcing her campaign, Clinton has seen her personal ratings plummet and in head to head matchups with prospective GOP nominees she has gone from prohibitive front runner to being in a virtual dead heat with most GOP candidates,” said Tom Shields, president of MRG. “If she continues at this pace Michigan could go Republican for president for the first time since 1988.”
The actual wording of the question and the results are below
I am going to read you a list of names of people in the news. For each, please tell me if you have or have not heard of the person. For each person you have heard of, please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of that person.
If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were [ROTATE:] (Hillary Clinton the Democrat) and (Jeb Bush the Republican), for whom would you vote?
MRG Michigan Poll Spring 2015
The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters was conducted by live interview September 9-14, 2015. The sample was randomly drawn from a listed sample of all registered voters with a history of voting and stratified by city and township to reflect voter turnout. In addition, quotas for gender and cell phone interviews were met within each geographic area, and extra efforts were made to reach African Americans. Thirty percent of the interviews were conducted with cell phone only or cell phone dominate households.
A sample of 600 likely voters in Michigan yields a sampling margin of error of ±4 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. The sampling margin of error for subgroups may be higher depending on the size of the subgroup.
About Marketing Resource Group, Inc.
Lansing, Michigan-based Marketing Resource Group, Inc. (www.mrgmi.com) is an award-winning PR firm representing corporate, association, nonprofit, and private clients with interests in Michigan. MRG offers expertise in public affairs, communications, political campaign management, and public opinion survey research. For more than thirty years, MRG has conducted its bi-annual omnibus Michigan Poll™, tracking the pulse of Michigan voters on key statewide public policy and political issues. MRG is the only Michigan public opinion survey research firm that maintains nearly 30 years of trend analyses of voter attitudes related to state and national leaders, political parties, and the political and economic climate in Michigan.