NEW POLL

 

 

LANSING, Mich. –Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump by five percentage points (41percent – 36 percent) in Michigan as the campaign for President enters the final few weeks of the election. The statewide poll, conducted by Marketing Resource Group (MRG), showed the number of undecided voters has been reduced to just eight percent.

Graphic for Poll

 

The poll showed that Clinton’s lead is directly attributed to her strong amount support from women, where she leads Trump by 16 percent, and her amount of support from African American voters where she leads by 80 percent (84 percent Clinton – 4 percent Trump). Trump is winning among men by 5 percent. He also leads among white voters by 5 percent.

 

Both candidates have solidified their base party vote with 78 percent of all Democrats voting for Clinton and 77 percent of Republicans voting for Trump. Independent voters favor Trump over Clinton by 7 percent. Neither candidate is attracting members of the opposite party as only 4 percent of Republicans are voting for Clinton and 5 percent of Democrats are voting for Trump.

 

Geographically, Clinton’s strongest support comes from the Detroit metropolitan area where she leads Trump 46 percent to 34 percent. Trump leads Clinton in the Grand Rapids/West Michigan area by 5 percent (40 percent Trump – 35 percent Clinton) and in the Traverse City/Northern Michigan area by 15 percent (41 percent Trump to 26% Clinton).

 

In a ballot test that only included Clinton and Trump, Clinton leads by 8 percent (46 percent Clinton/Kaine – 38 percent Trump/Pence. This indicates that Clinton may be more negatively affected by having third party candidates on the ballot than Trump is.

 

 

 

Neither candidate is popular

Neither candidate has gained in popularity since MRG’s last poll in July. A majority of Michigan voters has a negative view of both Clinton (31 percent favorable/58 percent unfavorable) and Trump (29 percent favorable/60 percent unfavorable) when voters were asked their perceptions of each candidate.

 

“Either candidate can win Michigan by winning votes back from the third party candidates and capturing a majority of the 15 percent of the Independent voters who are still undecided,” said Tom Shields, President of MRG. “This is coming down to a traditional election where the Independent voters will decide who wins Michigan.”

 

The results and the wording of the questions asked by MRG follow.

 

Presidential General Election

If the election for President was being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, for whom would you be voting for? If undecided, ask Well which way are you leaning, towards Trump. Clinton, Johnson or Stein.

  All GOP IND DEM Men Women INDMen IND

Women

Clinton 41% 4% 29% 78% 35% 46% 22% 36%
Trump 36% 77% 36% 5% 41% 30% 44% 27%
Johnson 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 6% 8%
Stein 3% 0% 7% 3% 3% 3% 6% 7%
Someone else (volunteered) 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Wouldn’t vote (volunteered) 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other/Undecided/Don’t Know 8% 8% 15% 3% 7% 9% 14% 16%
Refused 3% 3% 4% 2% 4% 3% 5% 3%

*Totals may not add up to 100% because of automatic rounding

 

Is your opinion of Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him/her? (If favorable/unfavorable, ask, do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?)

 

  All GOP IND DEM Men Women GOP Men GOP Women
Clinton Favorable 31% 2% 17% 64% 29% 34% 1% 2%
Clinton Unfavorable 58% 93% 70% 23% 63% 53% 95% 91%
Trump Favorable 29% 61% 34% 3% 35% 23% 67% 53%
Trump Unfavorable 60% 24% 56% 92% 55% 64% 19% 30%

 

Ballot test by Media Market

  All Det Metro Grand Rapids/K’zoo Flint/Sag/Bay City Lansing Mid-Mich Traverse City/Soo/Cad
Clinton 41% 46% 35% 43% 34% 26%
Trump 36% 34% 40% 35% 27% 41%
Johnson 7% 6% 8% 6% 1% 8%
Stein 3% 3% 3% 0% 11% 5%
Undecided 8% 9% 8% 8% 6% 8%

* Totals may not add up to 100% because of automatic rounding, respondents who refused or choose others

 

 

MRG Michigan Poll® October, 2016

The survey was conducted by Marketing Resource Group with 600 likely Michigan voters by live interview October 16-19, 2016. The sample was randomly drawn from a listed sample of all registered voters and stratified by city and township to reflect voter turnout. In addition, quotas for gender and cell phone interviews were met within each geographic area, and extra efforts were made to reach African Americans. Thirty percent of the interviews were conducted with cell phone only homes.

 

A sample of 600 likely voters in Michigan yields a sampling margin of error of ±4 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. The sampling margin of error for subgroups may be higher depending on the size of the subgroup.

 

For further breakout of the data, please contact Tom Shields toms@mrgmi.com, 517.372.4400

 

 

About Marketing Resource Group, Inc.

Lansing, Michigan-based Marketing Resource Group, Inc. (www.mrgmi.com) is an award-winning PR firm representing corporate, association, nonprofit, and private clients with interests in Michigan. MRG offers expertise in public affairs, communications, political campaign management, and public opinion survey research. MRG is the only Michigan public opinion survey research firm that maintains nearly 30 years of trend analyses of voter attitudes related to state and national leaders, political parties, and the political and economic climate in Michigan.

 

Follow MRG on Twitter @mrgmichigan and on Facebook

 

Links to view crosstabs: Ballot Test & Name ID and Perception.

 

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