Number of undecided voters means it’s still early

LANSING, Mich. – With just over 10 months to go until the 2018 August Primary elections. Attorney General Bill Schuette and former State Senator Gretchen Whitmer hold solid leads over their primary challengers in the race for Governor. But there are still 48 percent of the GOP voters and 58 percent of the Democrat voters who are undecided.

In the GOP primary, Schuette holds a 20 point lead over Lt. Governor Brian Calley, 33 percent to 13 percent. They are followed by Dr. Jim Hines and State Senator Pat Colbeck with 3 percent each. Geographically, Schuette does well in areas like northern lower Michigan (44 percent) and the Flint/Saginaw Bay City (39 percent) areas where he used to serve as a Congressman and State Senator. But he also does well in Macomb County (43 percent) and West Michigan (39 percent). Calley does the best in Oakland County (20%) and mid-Michigan (19%) where he is tied with Schuette.

“Schuette is the best known and has a solid lead among traditional Republican voter groups,” said Tom Shields, President of MRG. “There is no indication in the polling data that Calley’s spending of over $1 million on his term limit effort has paid benefits. But it is still early. Eight years ago Attorney General Mike Cox was leading in our poll of GOP primary voters and Rick Snyder only had 2 percent of the vote. On the Democrat side, John Cherry was leading John Freeman and Alma Wheeler-Smith in the Democratic primary. None of them won in the August 2010 primary election.”

In the Democratic Primary, Gretchen Whitmer is the only candidate in double digits with 27 percent of the Democratic primary vote, followed by Bill Cobbs with 8 percent, Abdul El-Sayed with 4 percent and Shri Thanedar with 3 percent. Ms. Whitmer runs the strongest in her home town area of mid-Michigan (40 percent), but also does well in northern Michigan (44 percent). A majority of the Democratic voters in the rest of the state are still undecided, especially in areas like Oakland County (75 percent undecided) and Flint/Saginaw/Bay City (72 percent undecided).

The results and the wording of the questions asked by MRG follow.

 

GOP Gubernatorial Primary Vote

 

Q If the Republican primary for Governor of Michigan was being held today, and the candidates were Brian Calley, Jim Hines. Pat Colbeck and Bill Schuette, for whom would you vote?

 

  April 2017 Sept. 2017
Brian Calley 11% 13%
Jim Hines 7% 3%
Pat Colbeck Not tested 3%
Bill Schuette 32% 33%
Other/Undecided/Don’t Know 51% 48%

 

DEM Gubernatorial Primary Vote

 

  1. If the Democratic primary for Governor of Michigan was being held today, and the candidates were Abdul El-Sayed. Bill Cobbs, Gretchen Witmer and Shri Thanedar, whom would you vote for?

 

Abdul El-Sayed 4%
Bill Cobbs 8%
Gretchen Whitmer 27%
Shri Thanedar 3%
Other/Undecided/Don’t Know 58%

 

 

Poll results in September 2009 for the Republican Primary for Governor

 

If the Republican primary election for Michigan Governor were being held

today, and the candidates were (ROTATE: Mike Bouchard, Mike Cox,

Tom George, Pete Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder) for whom would you vote?

(IF REF/DK, ASK: Which way do you lean as of today, toward (ROTATE:

Bouchard, Cox, George, Hoekstra, or Snyder)?

TOTAL BOUCHARD………………………………….15%

TOTAL COX……………………………………………….27%

TOTAL GEORGE………………………………………….2%

TOTAL HOEKSTRA …………………………………..23%

TOTAL SNYDER ………………………………………….2%

Don’t know…………………………………………………26%

Refused…………………………………………………………4%

 

Poll Results in September 2009 for the Democratic Primary for Governor

If the Democratic primary election for Michigan Governor were being

held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE: John Cherry, John

Freeman, and Alma Wheeler Smith) for whom would you vote? (IF

REF/DK, ASK: Which way do you lean as of today, toward (ROTATE:

Cherry, Freeman, or Wheeler Smith)?

 

TOTAL CHERRY………………………………………..38%

TOTAL FREEMAN ………………………………………8%

TOTAL WHEELER SMITTH ………………………..6%

Don’t know…………………………………………………45%

Refused…………………………………………………………2%

 

Name ID and perception: Now, I’m going to read you the names of some people and groups in the news, and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don’t know the name, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE)

 

CALLEY Name ID Positive Perception Negative

Perception

September 2017 37 9 8
May 2017 36 12 7
October 2016 32 9 9
Feb 2016 33 11 6
Feb 2015 33 11 6

 

SCHUETTE Name ID Positive Perception Negative

Perception

September 2017 68 21 18
May 2017 64 21 17
October 2016 57 20 18
Feb 2016 70 23 20
Feb 2015 64 21 16

 

HINES Name ID Positive Perception Negative

Perception

September 2017 17 4 2
May 2017 21 4 2
October 2016 19 3 4

 

WHITMER Name ID Positive Perception Negative

Perception

September 2017 28 10 4
May 2017 32 14 5
October 2016 21 8 5

 

EL-SAYED Name ID Positive Perception Negative

Perception

May 2017 26 6 5

 

 

FIEGER Name ID Positive Perception Negative

Perception

May 2017 86 28 30

 

 

MRG Michigan Poll Fall 2017

None of the questions released in this press advisory where paid for or sponsored by outside third parties. The data belongs to MRG and is being released to the public.

 

The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters was conducted by live interview September 13-18, 2017. The sample was randomly drawn from a listed sample of all registered voters with a history of voting and stratified by city and township to reflect voter turnout. 30% of the sample was conducted with cell phone users. In addition, quotas for gender and cell phone interviews were met within each geographic area, and extra efforts were made to reach African Americans. Thirty percent of the interviews were conducted with cell phone only or cell phone dominant households.

 

A sample of 600 likely voters in Michigan yields a sampling margin of error of ±4 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. The sampling margin of error for subgroups may be higher depending on the size of the subgroup. Sample size of GOP primary voters = 216. Sample size of DEM primary voters = 255.

 

About Marketing Resource Group, Inc.

Lansing, Michigan-based Marketing Resource Group, Inc. (www.mrgmi.com) is an award-winning PR firm representing corporate, association, nonprofit, and private clients with interests in Michigan. MRG offers expertise in public affairs, communications, political campaign management, and public opinion survey research. For more than thirty years, MRG has conducted its bi-annual omnibus Michigan Poll™, tracking the pulse of Michigan voters on key statewide public policy and political issues. MRG is the only Michigan public opinion survey research firm that maintains nearly 30 years of trend analyses of voter attitudes related to state and national leaders, political parties, and the political and economic climate in Michigan. If any member of the media is interested in our trend data, please contact Tom Shields.

 

Follow MRG on Twitter @mrgmichigan and on Facebook.

 

 

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