.png)
Trump Leads Biden by 6% in Head to Head Matchup
LANSING, Mich. – The 2024 presidential election cycle is well underway, and if the election were held today, Donald Trump would beat President Biden by 6%. In a recent MRG-commissioned Michigan Poll®, conducted April 8 to April 11, results show Trump would snag 42% of the vote, with Biden trailing at 36%. These results are consistent with the MRG Fall 2023 Michigan Poll®, where Trump was ahead with 42%, and the Biden vote totaled 35%.
Trump's advantage is a result of his 15%-point lead (39% Trump – 24% Biden) among Independent Voters. The poll also shows Biden is in potential trouble with traditional Democratic voters. Biden is only capturing 57% of the African-American vote, 45% of the Union Vote and 40% of the female vote. A total of 14% of voters say they are planning on voting for someone else.
Geographically, the Detroit media market is a tossup, with Biden winning Detroit and Oakland County and Trump ahead in Macomb and the Balance of Wayne County. Trump is winning in Mid-Michigan, Northern Michigan, the Tri-Cities area and the UP. The two candidates are tied in West Michigan.
Third-party and Independent candidates may be the story of the 2024 elections. They are providing a place for voters who are not happy with President Biden's job and those who do not like Trump to cast their votes.
When you include these potential candidates, the results show Trump at 37%, Biden at 34%, Kennedy at 13%, Stein at 2%, West at 1%, someone else at 3%, and 8% of voters are still undecided.
Over a quarter of Michigan voters, 27%, said that if the election were today, they would either vote for an independent candidate, third-party candidate, or someone else, or they still remain undecided. "Right now, this election is a race between Biden, Trump, and the couch. Both presidential candidates will have to pound the pavement in the coming months to motivate their base and win the support of Michigan voters," said Jenell Leonard, Owner of Marketing Resource Group. "While many have decided who they'll be voting for on the presidential ticket in November, the number of folks not choosing a major party candidate proves this election could end up in a wild-card race."
When provided the name of Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., he is leading President Joe Biden by 1% among Independent Voters (Trump 33%, Kennedy 22%, Biden 21%). Generally, Independents support Trump over Biden, but 45% are either voting for third-party or independent candidates in the 2024 Presidential race. "This election will be fluid with many people making up their minds based on who they think will handle their issue the best, even if they don't like them," said Tom Shields, Senior Advisor to Marketing Resource Group.
A new class of voters in this election does not like either Donald Trump or President Biden. About 15% of the electorate falls into that category. At this time, Kennedy was leading among these voters with 40% of the vote, followed by Trump with 11%, Biden with 10%, West with 7%, and Stein with 5%. Seven percent are still looking for another candidate, and 20% remain undecided.
Click below to download the full press release and view results.
.png)