From Spring to Fall: Analyzing Shifts in Polling Trends

Author: Aidan Nelson, anelson@mrgmi.com

With just under a week to go before the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris is narrowing the gap against Donald Trump in Michigan, as revealed in a recent MRG-commissioned Michigan Poll®, conducted October 7 to October 11. In several key demographics and regions across the state, Harris has either surpassed or significantly improved upon Joe Biden’s 2024 spring results, demonstrating strength among moderates, young voters, Black voters, and in Metro Detroit. However, Trump remains competitive across several key regions and demographics, showing gains among male voters, the 35-49 age group, and in West Michigan.

Regional Insights

Macomb County, a key battleground that has often swung between parties in presidential elections, remains highly competitive. Donald Trump currently leads Kamala Harris by a slim margin of 2.1 points, with 44% of the vote compared to Harris’s 42%. This indicates a significant shift since the spring, as Biden previously trailed Trump by 26 points in the county. Traditionally a stronghold for working-class voters who have historically leaned Republican, Macomb County’s electorate could play a pivotal role in determining Michigan’s outcome

Furthermore, Oakland County shows a tightening race, with Harris garnering 52% support compared to Trump’s 31%. While this is slightly lower than Biden’s previous 53%, Trump has improved his standing by 4 points. Oakland continues to be a stronghold for Democrats, even as the margins shift. Harris also shows remarkable growth in Metro Detroit, leading Trump 52% to 35%, which is a 15-point improvement over Biden's earlier spring poll performance. This surge solidifies Metro Detroit as a core Democratic base heading into the final weeks of the campaign.

West Michigan, including the Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo regions, has seen a significant shift in voter sentiment since the spring, presenting a challenging landscape for Kamala Harris. In this region, Donald Trump has established a commanding lead, polling at 51% compared to Harris’s 36%. This represents a dramatic 20-point swing in favor of Trump since Biden's earlier performance, where he led Trump with 39% of the vote to Trump’s 32%.

The shift underscores the region's historical lean toward conservative values, which have been a stronghold for the GOP in recent cycles. Despite Harris’ campaign efforts to appeal to moderate and independent voters in West Michigan, Trump’s growing support suggests a deeper connection with the area’s electorate.

To remain competitive in Michigan, Harris will need to focus on boosting turnout among younger and more progressive voters in cities like Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo, where there is a base of Democratic support. The region’s current margins are a critical area of concern for Democrats, as losing ground here could have statewide implications.

Key Demographic Insights

Male voters continue to favor Donald Trump, who leads Kamala Harris by a considerable margin of 50% to 34%. However, Harris has made slight inroads, improving Biden’s previous performance among men by nearly 3 points. Trump’s support among this demographic has grown by 8 points since the spring, indicating a stronger resonance with male voters, particularly in working-class and rural areas.

Black voters have traditionally been a strong Democratic base, and Harris has capitalized on this by garnering 67% of their support, significantly up from Biden’s 48% in the spring. Furthermore, moderate voters, who often decide the outcome in swing states like Michigan, are currently leaning toward Kamala Harris. With 53% of moderates supporting Harris, a 16-point gain over Biden’s earlier result. Trump, however, has also improved his numbers among moderates by 8 points, suggesting increased efforts to appeal to independents.

Young voters aged 18-34 have shifted significantly toward Kamala Harris, who now leads Trump 50% to 29% in this demographic. This marks a 27-point improvement over Biden’s spring poll performance and highlights the potential for a high turnout among younger voters, traditionally a key Democratic demographic. Mobilizing this age group will be critical, as they are often less likely to vote but have the potential to sway the state if turnout increases.

The opposite could be said for the 35-49 age group, with Trump leading 55% to 27%. This represents an 18-point swing in Trump’s favor since the spring and signals significant discontent with Democratic messaging among generation X voters. This demographic often prioritizes economic stability, healthcare costs, and education. Harris will need to address economic concerns and middle-class tax relief more robustly to gain ground among these voters.

Harris has made substantial progress among voters aged 50-64, leading Trump 48% to 45%, which is a 13-point improvement from Biden’s performance in this age group when polled in the spring. This shift suggests that Harris’ messages on healthcare and Social Security may be resonating with this demographic. Additionally, among voters aged 65 and older, Harris holds a notable 53% to 38% lead over Trump, reflecting a 15-point gain from Biden’s spring poll performance.

This age group, which tends to have high voter turnout, often prioritizes issues like Medicare, Social Security, and healthcare access. Harris’ messaging on protecting Medicare and expanding senior benefits appears to be resonating well, giving her a strong position in this vital demographic. If Harris maintains this lead, it could significantly impact Michigan’s overall results.

Conclusion

The shifting polling trends from spring to fall in Michigan highlight a dynamic and fiercely competitive race heading into the 2024 presidential election. Kamala Harris has demonstrated significant gains among key demographics such as young voters, moderates, Black voters, and seniors, reinforcing her foothold in Democratic strongholds like Metro Detroit and Oakland County. However, Donald Trump’s surge among men, Gen X voters, and in historically conservative regions such as West Michigan showcases his sustained appeal, particularly with working-class and rural voters.

As the final weeks approach, the outcomes in battleground areas like Macomb County and the engagement of critical voter blocs will be pivotal. Harris must continue to energize younger and progressive voters while addressing economic and middle-class concerns to broaden her appeal. Conversely, Trump’s strategy to solidify his base and sway independent and moderate voters could prove decisive in a state that remains a key indicator for the national race.

Both campaigns face a critical window to solidify support and mobilize their respective bases. The outcome in Michigan could hinge on turnout efforts and the ability to capture the attention of those still weighing their options. The data underscores that while the race has seen notable shifts, the path to victory for either candidate will require relentless focus and strategic outreach in these last crucial weeks.

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The Questions and Results

The results and the wording of the questions asked by MRG follow.

Q. If the election for President was being held today and the candidates were Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Candidate Chase Oliver, U.S. Taxpayer Candidate Randall Terry, Natural Law Candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party Candidate Jill Stein, Independent Candidate Joseph Kishore, and Independent Candidate Cornell West, would you be voting for (ROTATE) Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Chase Oliver the Libertarian Candidate, Randall Terry the U.S. Taxpayer Candidate, Joe Kennedy the Natural Law Candidate, Jill Stein of the Green party, Cornell West the Independent, Joseph Kishore the Independent, or someone else?

MRG Michigan Poll® Fall 2024

The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters was conducted by live phone interview from October 7 to October 11, 2024. The sample was randomly drawn from a listed sample of all registered voters with a history of voting and stratified by city and township to reflect voter turnout. Quotas for gender and cell phone interviews were met within each geographic area, and extra efforts were made to reach African Americans. Some columns or results may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Individual rounding may impact final totals. This survey yields a sampling margin of error of ±4 percent with a 96 percent confidence interval. The sampling margin of error for subgroups may be higher depending on the size of the subgroup.

About Marketing Resource Group (MRG)

Lansing, Michigan-based Marketing Resource Group (www.mrgmi.com) is an award-winning PR firm representing corporate, association, nonprofit, and private clients with interests in Michigan. MRG offers expertise in public affairs, communications, political campaign management, and public opinion survey research. For more than thirty years, MRG has conducted its bi-annual omnibus Michigan Poll®, tracking the pulse of Michigan voters on key statewide public policy and political issues. MRG is the only Michigan public opinion survey research firm that maintains nearly 40 years of trend analyses of voter attitudes related to state and national leaders, political parties, and the political and economic climate in Michigan. Follow MRG on X @mrgmichigan and on Facebook.