Top of the Ticket: Presidential Race Remains a Dead Heat as Harris Leads Trump by 1%

LANSING, Mich. – The 2024 presidential election cycle is well underway, and if the election were held today, Kamala Harris would snag 45% of the vote while Donald Trump trails by only 1% at 44%. In a recent MRG-commissioned Michigan Poll®, conducted October 7 to October 11, results show the gap between Harris and Trump closing. Compared to the MRG Spring Michigan Poll, Trump has gained 2 percentage points over the past 6 months. However, Harris has improved upon Biden’s 36% from April 2024, adding 9% of voter support and pulling herself ahead with a slight lead over Trump with three weeks to go.

“Michigan continues to be one of the most competitive races in the country,” said Jenell Leonard, owner of MRG. “The race is a jump ball today and it will be critical for the candidates to have the resources and infrastructure to organize, identify, and ensure their supporters turn out over the next three weeks.”  

Trump maintains a strong lead with independent voters at 35%, totaling a nearly 10% lead over Harris’ 26% support from independents. Additionally, Trump has made significant headway with Michigan union voters. In MRG’s Michigan Poll Spring 2024, 31% of union voters planned to vote for Trump. Today, Trump has gained 11% of union voters’ support, totaling 42%. Harris has captured an additional 10% of African American votes compared to President Biden’s 57%.

Harris is seeing growing support in both Detroit and Oakland County. Trump is ahead by just 2% in Macomb, with 8% of Macomb respondents still planning to vote for Robert F. Kennedy even though he suspended his presidential campaign in August and endorsed Donald Trump. Trump is also up 50%-37% in West Michigan.  

“Harris has done a slightly better job solidifying her base, which will be critical in a close race where turnout is needed, but the race to the White House will also come down to winning the support of the moveable middle," said Jenell Leonard, owner of MRG. "Right now, only 75% of independent voters definitely plan to vote in the general election, and Trump has a slight edge of support from those who identify as Independent. Trump is also enjoying the growth in support from traditionally democrat-leaning demographics including unions."

Harris’ liability lies in the way voters perceive her as her personal ratings are not far above that of President Biden (32%). Only 38% share a positive feeling about Harris compared to 41% who have a positive feeling towards Trump. Both candidates tie their negative ratings at 49%.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Slotkin Leads by 5%

Across the state, Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin is ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in the race for U.S. Senate by 5% with Slotkin receiving 46% of the vote compared to Rogers’ 41%.

In the balance of Detroit, support for Elissa Slotkin and Mike Rogers is evenly split at 47% for each candidate. In Oakland and Mid-Michigan, Slotkin is ahead by 22% and 9%, respectively. Rogers is ahead by 10% in West Michigan and 2% in Macomb. Rogers leads by 5% with independents, while 8% of Republicans say they are likely to cross over and vote for Slotkin. The crossover does not match on the Democratic side, where only 2% of Democrats said they would vote for Rogers. Slotkin leads 52%-41% with union voters and 43%-40% with non-union voters.

“Like Harris, Slotkin has shored up her base," said Leonard. "Rogers is doing well with independents but needs to improve with Republican voters. Republicans often come home late. If this holds true, this race will be one of the closest in the country on election night.”

‍

The Questions and Results

The results and the wording of the questions asked by MRG follow.

Q.  Now, I'm going to read you the names of people that have been in the news, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.  If you don't know the name, please just say so. [RANDOMIZE]

Q. If the election for President was being held today and the candidates were Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Candidate Chase Oliver, U.S. Taxpayer Candidate Randall Terry, Natural Law Candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party Candidate Jill Stein, Independent Candidate Joseph Kishore, and Independent Candidate Cornell West, would you be voting for (ROTATE) Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Chase Oliver the Libertarian Candidate, Randall Terry the U.S. Taxpayer Candidate, Joe Kennedy the Natural Law Candidate, Jill Stein of the Green party, Cornell West the Independent, Joseph Kishore the Independent, or someone else?

Q. If the election for United States Senate was being held today and the candidates were Democrat Elissa Slotkin, Republican Mike Rogers, Libertarian Joseph Solis-Mullen, U.S. Taxpayer Candidate Dave Stein, Green Party candidate Douglas Marsh, and Natural Party candidate Doug Dern, would you be voting for (ROTATE) Elissa Slotkin the Democrat, Mike Rogers the Republican, Joseph Solis-Mullen the Libertarian candidate, Dave Stein the U.S. Taxpayer Candidate, Douglas Marsh the Green Party candidate, Doug Dern the Natural Party candidate, or someone else?

MRG Michigan Poll® Fall 2024

The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters was conducted by live phone interview from October 7 to October 11, 2024. The sample was randomly drawn from a listed sample of all registered voters with a history of voting and stratified by city and township to reflect voter turnout. Quotas for gender and cell phone interviews were met within each geographic area, and extra efforts were made to reach African Americans. Some columns or results may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Individual rounding may impact final totals. This survey yields a sampling margin of error of ±4 percent with a 96 percent confidence interval. The sampling margin of error for subgroups may be higher depending on the size of the subgroup.

About Marketing Resource Group (MRG)

Lansing, Michigan-based Marketing Resource Group (www.mrgmi.com) is an award-winning PR firm representing corporate, association, nonprofit, and private clients with interests in Michigan. MRG offers expertise in public affairs, communications, political campaign management, and public opinion survey research. For more than thirty years, MRG has conducted its bi-annual omnibus Michigan Poll®, tracking the pulse of Michigan voters on key statewide public policy and political issues. MRG is the only Michigan public opinion survey research firm that maintains nearly 40 years of trend analyses of voter attitudes related to state and national leaders, political parties, and the political and economic climate in Michigan. Follow MRG on X @mrgmichigan and on Facebook.